List of Research Achievement

Fields : Macroeconomics, Public Economics, Chinese Economy, Applied Econometrics; Empirical and Theoretical Approaches

Keywords : Habit, Information, Tax, Uncertainty, Natural Experiment, Bubble, Chinese Economy, Social Interaction, Behavioral Economics

 

Published Research Articles

1.Cigarette Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control in Japan, Applied Economics, vol.38, no.14, pp.1663-1675, August 2006.

 

2.Why Does China Achieve World's Highest Household Savings Rate? 単著

  Outlook Weekly (Xinhua News Agency, in Chinese), pp.49-49, Vol.32, 2006.

 

3.過剰債務と家計消費−ミクロデータに基づく実証分析−, 小川一夫教授と共著

  林文夫(Fumio Hayashi)教授編『制度の実証分析と設計』第2巻『金融の機能不全』第6章、pp.151-1862007116日出版、勁草書房

 

4.Household Debt and Consumption: A Quantitative Analysis Based on Household Micro Data for Japan, with Kazuo Ogawa, Journal of Housing Economics, vol.16(2), pp.127-142, June, 2007.

 

5.Experiments on Risk Attitute and Comparative Analysis (in Chinese, with English summary), Journal of Financial Research (Journal of China Financial Association, supervised by People' Bank of China (central bank)), General No.329, No.11, pp.57-66, November 2007, jointly with Shiyu Xie, Bibo Sun, Hongxin Zhu, Yoshiro Tsutsuyi, Jie Qin.

 

6.The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data, with Charles Yuji Horioka, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.39, no.8, pp.2077-2096, December, 2007.

  

7.Why Does China Save So Much? with Charles Yuji Horioka, The final chapter (Chapter 14, pp.371-391) of `China, Asia, and the New World Economy,' Oxford University Press, edited by Barry Eichengreen, Yung Chul Park, and Charles Wyplosz, 2008.

 

8.The Incentive to Declare Taxes and Tax Revenue: The Lottery Receipt Experiment in China, Review of Development Economics, vol.14(3) pp.611-624, August, 2010.

 

9.家計の負債構造と消費:わが国のミクロ・ータによる実証 , 小川一夫教授と共著  季刊住宅土地経済 , vol.80, 2011 Spring,12-22, 20113月。

 

10.中国の税制改革と税収−くじ付領収書の導入とその効果−、東アジアへの視点vol.23(1)pp.13-2620123月。

 

11.Prevention, Hard and Soft Landing of Bubble,'' Contemporary Economic Management (in Chinese), vol.36(3), pp.1-9, March, 2014、単著、査読付

 

2Consumer Casualties: Exploring the Economics of Habit, Information, and Uncertainty in Japan, forthcoming, Palgrave Macmillan, New York、単著、査読付

 

 

Recent Working Papers

1.The Lottery Receipt's Effect on Tax Declaration in Urban China, CAES Working Paper Series WP-2009-016, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, December 2009.

 

2.A Solution to Tax Evasion, CAES Working Paper Series WP-2009-009, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, August 2009.

 

3.The Optimality for Indirect Taxes, with Hiroaki Fujimoto, CAES Working Paper Series WP-2009-012, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, September 2009. Accepted by the Econometric Society World Congress 2010 Shanghai Meeting.

 

4.The Lottery Receipt Experiment in China, CAES Working Paper Series WP-2009-014, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, September 2009.

 

5.The Lottery Receipt, in JapaneseCAES Working Paper Series WPJ-2010-001, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, May 2010.

 

6.A Prevention against Bubble (バブル発生の予防策)  CAES Working Paper Series WP-2011-003, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, March 2011.

 

7Bubbly Saving (バブリ貯蓄)  CAES Working Paper Series WP-2011-010, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, November 2011.

 

8Saving Thought, Theory and Evidence (貯蓄の思想・理論・証拠)  CAES Working Paper Series WP-2011-012, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, December 2011.

 

9The Lottery Receipt's Effect on Provincial Tax Revenues in China (くじ付領収書が中国省別税収に与える影響)  CAES Working Paper Series WP-2011-014, Center for Advanced Economic Study Fukuoka University, December 2011.

 

10Household Saving and Housing Price in China,'' CAES Working Paper Series WP-2013-001, Center for Advanced Economic Study, Fukuoka University, May 2013.

 

11Prevention, Hard and Soft Landing of Bubble, CAES Working Paper Series WP-2014-001, Center for Advanced Economic Study, Fukuoka University, January 2014 (in Chinese, with English summary).

 

Research Articles under Revising

1.Testing for the Interest Parity Hypothesis

2000.01, B.A. thesis (in Japanese), Faculty of Economics, Osaka University.

The Bachelor Dissertation was made in Professor Yuzo Honda ’s research seminar.

 

2. An Analysis of Cigarette Consumption in Japan

2002.01, Master thesis, School of Economics, Osaka University. It was presented at 2002 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Otaru University Jun, 15th, 2002, discussant: Seki Asano (Professor in Tokyo Metropolitan University); The Committee of Master Dissertation: Professor Kazuo Ogawa (Chief), Professor Charles Yuji Horioka, Professor Fumio Ohtake

 

3. Response to Health Information: A Natural Experiment from Japanese Cigarette Consumption, 2002.06.

   Revised, Consumption of Cigarettes, Nicotine, and Tar under Anti-smoking: Japan as a Case Study, 2006.03.

Discussion Papers No.04-12, Economics and Business, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, January 2004.

Discussion Paper Series No. 20, 21st Century Center of Excellence Program “Behavioral Macrodynamics based on Surveys and Experiments.” Osaka Unvesity.

 

4.  Rational Addiction, Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control, 2002.09.

Revised version: Cigarette Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control in Japan, Applied Economics Vol.38,PP.1663-1675, Aug. 2006.

Discussion Papers No.04-11, Economics and Business, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, January 2004.

Discussion Paper Series No. 19, 21st Century Center of Excellence Program “Behavioral Macrodynamics based on Surveys and Experiments.” Osaka Unvesity.

 Chapter 2 of doctoral dissertation.

 

5.Testing for the Effect of Health Information Disclosure on Cigarette Inter-brand Demand

2003.01, presented at 2003 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Oita University on 14 June 2003, discussant: Mikiyo Kii Niizeki (Associate Professor in Doshisha University).

Revised version:Responses of Consumers to the Mandatory Disclosure of Information: Evidence from Japanese Inter-Brand Cigarette Demands2003.08; submitted to an academic journal in economics in January 2006, been revising based on referee reports for this journal since July 2006 .

Discussion Papers No.04-13, Economics and Business, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, January 2004, No.04-13.

Discussion Paper Series No.21, 21st Century Center of Excellence Program “Behavioral Macrodynamics based on Surveys and Experiments.” Osaka Unvesity.

 Chapter 5 of doctoral dissertation

 

6.Testing for the Preferences of Participants in Gambling : A Case Study of Pinball Parlor Game Using Individual Data of Japanese Pachinko Survey

2003.10, presented at 2003 Autumn Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Meiji University on 12 October 2003, discussant: Megumi Okui (Associate Professor in Kanazawa Gakuin University).

First revised version: Testing the Gambling Addiction Hypothesis Using Japanese Pachinko Survey

2004.11, under revision, second revised version: Is Gambling Addictive? Evidence from Pachinko Participating, Quitting and Re-initiating, Chapter 6 of doctoral dissertation, prepare for submission to an academic journal.

 

7.Incentive to Declaration for Taxation versus Tax Revenues: The Case of China Experiment of Receipt with Lottery

2003.08, revised version in April, 2004, presented at 2004 Autumn Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Okayama University on 26 September 2004, discussant: Toshiki Watanabe (Professor in Chuo University), revised versionTax Revenue in China and the Incentive to Declare Taxes: The Lottery Purchase Receipt Experiment, Chapter 8 of doctoral dissertation, preparation for submission to an academic journal.

The revised version of this paper was presented at the `WTO, China, and the Asian Economies, IV’ which was held by University of International Business and Economics on June 24-25, 2006.

The revised version of this paper was presented at Professor Yaohui Zhao’s Research Seminar in China Center for Economic Research on 22 June 2006, Peking University.

It has been accepted by the 2006 Far Eastern Meeting of The Econometric Society July 9th-12th, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Discussion Papers No.06-25, Economics and Business, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, Sept. 2006.

Discussion Paper Series No.147, 21st Century Center of Excellence Program “Behavioral Macrodynamics based on Surveys and Experiments.” Osaka University, Sept. 2006.

The revised (on July 28, 2008) version of this paper was presented (PPT) at The 64th Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) held at Maastricht, the Netherlands, from August 22 to 25, 2008.

 

8. Re-examination of Rational Addiction Model with and without Distinction between Purchase and Consumption, 2002.08, mimeo.

First revised version: Rational Addiction with an Optimal Inventory: Theory and Evidence from Japanese Daily and Monthly Purchases.

Discussion Papers No.04-01, Economics and Business, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, January 2004.

Discussion Paper Series No. 18, 21st Century Center of Excellence Program “Behavioral Macrodynamics based on Surveys and Experiments”, Osaka Unvesity.

This paper was presented at 2004 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Meiji Gakuin University on 12 June 2004, discussant: Noriko Hashimoto (Professor in Kansai University).

It was presented at Macro Lunch Seminar in Graduate School of Economics on 1 July 2004, Osaka University.

(Second revised version) The Seventh ISER-Moriguchi Prize (2005) Awarded Paper, Rational Addiction with Optimal Inventories: Theory and Evidence from Cigarette Purchases in Japan, it was presented at ISER Seminar on 9 Feb, 2005.

Chapter 3 of doctoral dissertation.

It was presented at Seminar in School of Economics, Gakushuin University, on 26 May, 2005, at COE seminar Hitotsubashi University on Oct. 31, 2005.

 

9. Household Debt and Consumption? Evidence from Micro Data, jointed with Kazuo Ogawa, August, 2004.

 It was presented on ‘Micro Statistical Data Research Committee’ on 26 November, 2004.

(In Japanese) 家計の負債保有が消費行動に与える影響の定量分析全国消費実態調査平成元年、6年及び11年度の個票に基づいて 」、小川一夫・万軍民、20048. (共同研究報告書は「ミクロ統計データ活用研究会」へ提出済) 20041126()、「ミクロ統計データ活用研究会」で小川一夫教授と共同報告済.

It was presented at Macro Lunch Seminar in Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, on 2 December 2004.

It was presented at Empirical Analysis of Economic Institution (in Japanese, Seido no Jisshou Bunseki), University of Tokyo, on 19 March 2005.

It was presented at Seminar in China Center for Economic Research on 13 April 2005, Peking University.

It was presented at Seminar in School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, on 15 April 2005.

It was presented at Seminar in Institute of Economic Research, China Academy of Social Science, on 19 April 2005.

It was presented at 2005 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Kyoto Sangyo University on 4 June 2005, discussant: Atsushi Maki (Professor in Keio University).

It was presented at Empirical Analysis of Economic Institution (in Japanese, Seido no Jisshou Bunseki), University of Tokyo, on 17 March 2006.

It was presented at International Conference on Real Estates and the Macroeconomy, on July 24-25, 2006.

It was published in a Chapter of research volume edited by Fumio Hayashi in Jan. 2007.

 

10. Household Debt and Consumption: A Quantitative Analysis Based on Household Micro Data for Japan, Co-author: Kazuo Ogawa, Journal of Housing Economics, vol.16, pp.127-142, June 2007.

 

11. Are Gambling and Smoking Complementary? Direct Tests from Japanese Individual Data, Chapter 7 of doctoral dissertation. Under revision, prepare for being submitted to an academic journal in economics.

It was presented at 2005 Autumn Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Chuo University on 18 September 2005 (AM12:00-12:30), discussant: Seiritsu Ogura (Professor in Hosei University).

 

12. Is the Life Cycle or Ono’s Model Most Suitable to the Japanese?: Analysis by Time Series Data and Surveys of Lottery Purchase and Large-Prize Winners, Chapter 9 of doctoral dissertation.

 

13. Doctoral dissertation: Habit, Information and Uncertainty: Some Evidence from Natural Experiments, December, 2004. The Committee of Doctoral Dissertation: Professor Kazuo Ogawa (Chief), Professor Charles Yuji Horioka, Professor Fumio Ohtake.

This dissertation was presented at the ISER SEMINAR SERIES on 1 February, 2005.

 

14 Why Does China Save So Much? (Jointly with Professor Charles Yuji Horioka).

It was presented at an international conference named `China and Emerging Asia: Reorganizing the Global Economy?’ held by Korea Institute of International Economic Policy and by Seoul National University, on May 11, 2006.

It was presented at Seminar in China Center for Economic Research on June 21, 2006, Peking University.

It was presented at Seminar in School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, on June 26, 2006.

It was presented at IPP seminar at Osaka School of International Public, Osaka University, on June 8, 2006.

It was presented at 9:00am on Friday, July 21, in the EFACR Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Consumption Behavior workshop being held July 17-21, 2006, at NBER SUMMER INSTITUTE 2006 which was held in Cambridge, Massachusetts from July 10 to August 4, 2006.

It was presented at Asia-Pacific Economic Association, Seattle Conference, which was held by Department of Economics University of Washington at Seattle on July 29-30, 2006.

It was presented at 2006 Autumn Meeting of Japanese Economic Association at Osaka City University on 22 October 2006, discussant: Etsuro Shioji (Associate Professor in Hitotsubashi University).

Chapter 14 of `China, Asia, and the New World Economy,' published Oxford University Press, edited by Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science University of California, Berkeley, Yung Chul Park, Research Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University, and Charles Wyplosz, Professor, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, January 2008.

 

15. The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 39, no. 8, pp.2077-2096, December 2007 (Jointly with Professor Charles Yuji Horioka).

It was presented at Public Economics Seminar of Faculty of Economics of Keio University on 10 November 2006.

NBER Working Paper w12723 in December 2006.

It was presented at research seminar at The International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development on 26 January 2007.

It was presented at Center for Advanced Economic Study, Fukuoka University on 18 May 2007.

It was presented at Lunchtime Seminar at Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. on 22 May 2007.

It was presented at CPBS 2007 Annual Pacific Basin Conference, Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on June 8-9, 2007.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, USA, Working Paper 2007-28, January 2007.

 

Competitive Research Grants

(1) 平成19年度財団法人国際東アジア研究センター公募プロジェクト

(2) 平成19年度(第34回)日本証券奨学財団研究調査助成金公募プロジェクト

 

Work in progress

(1) Oil Consumption with Optimal Inventories: Theory and Evidence from OECD and BRICs Countries

(2) Incentive to Declaration for Taxation versus Tax Revenues: Micro Evidence from China Lottery Receipt Experiment (2006 Micro Survey on 1500 Chinese Urban Households, 2007 Micro Survey on 750 Rural Households, COE Program in Osaka University)

(3) Studies on China and Japan and US based on micro data sets

 

Interview, Essay, Comments, Seminar, etc.

1 「過剰債務と消費:日本からの教訓」、政策性研究簡報、No.50620054月、北京大学中国経済研究センター(Jointly with Professor Kazuo Ogawa.  (Policy Research, No. 506, April, 2005, CCER, Peking University)

2 ``Bubbles in the Land and Housing Market (in Chinese),’’ May 13, 2005, China Taxation News

3 ``Risk of Bubble in China’s Housing Market and Lessons from Japan (in Japanese),’’ NEWS LETTER, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, April 2006, No.37, page 4.

4 ``How to end China’s current account surpluses(in English)?’’ June 5, 2006, Daily Yomiuri. (Jointly with Professor CHARLES YUJI HORIOKA)

5 「中国 摩擦の背景に高貯蓄:人口構成が影響」日本経済新聞「経済教室」、200668日朝刊大阪大学ホリオカ教授と共著。 ``High Saving Rate in China Bring Conflicts with Other Countries: The Impact of Age Structure of Population,’’ June 8, ``Economics Classroom’’ in Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Japan Economic Journal). (Jointly with Professor CHARLES YUJI HORIOKA).

6  Comments (discussant) on ``Ownership Reform and Efficiency of Nationwide Banks in China’’ presented at the `WTO, China, and the Asian Economies, IV’ which was held by University of International Business and Economics on June 24-25, 2006.

7中国はなぜ多く貯蓄するのか」、政策性研究簡報、No.59120066月、北京大学中国経済研究センター(Jointly with Professor CHARLES YUJI HORIOKA. (Policy Research, No. 591, June, 2006, CCER, Peking University)

8 ``Frontier of Econometrics: Applications of Natural Experiments’’ was presented at Faculty of Business and Commerce of Keio University on July 8, 2006.

9 Panel discussant (comment) on ``Why China Should Keep its Dollar Peg? A Historical Perspective from Japan’’ presented by Professor Ronald I. Mckinnon of Stanford University at the `Public Policy under Globalization’ which was held by Osaka School of International Public Policy of Osaka University at Hotel Granvia Osaka on March Feb. 27-28, 2007.

10 Discussant (comment) on ``Growth Account of China and India’’ presented by Professor Barry P. Bosworth of Brookings Institution at the `Public Policy under Globalization’ which was held by Osaka School of International Public Policy of Osaka University at Hotel Granvia Osaka on March Feb. 27-28, 2007.

11 ``The Cause of Japan's Recession in the Last Decade,'' `Research' issued by Fukuoka University, Vol.12(3), pp.7-10, September 2007.

12 'China saving,' Jointly with Professor Charles Yuji Horioka, FRBSF Economic Letter

      2008-03; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, USA, February 1, 2008.

13 ``Solutions to Bubble,'' November 27, 2009.

14  'China bubble' in Chinese, ``West Japan Chinese News,'' December 28, 2009.

15Comments A in the 9th China Economics Annual Conference in December 2009.

         Comments B in the 9th China Economics Annual Conference in December 2009.

         Comments C in the 9th China Economics Annual Conference in December 2009.

         Comments D in the 9th China Economics Annual Conference in December 2009.

 

Others

1 Professor Yukihiko Fujita's replies to and Professor Takao Fujimoto's comments on the referees and editor's reports of Professor Yukihiko Fujita's paper `All Commodities Surplus Theorem.'

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